Market Report Is the Fat Lady Singing
By Todd Horwitz on Jul 17, 2021 at 2:20:23 PM

 Market Report Is the Fat Lady Singing

By

 

Todd Horwitz Chief Strategist BubbaTrading.com

Be Prepared not Surprised.

Markets had a rough week with the Dow, S+P and Nasdaq slightly lower, the Russell clobbered. One week does not make a trend but there are certainly warning signs that indicate trouble could be near.

Many traders and investors try to predict what is next which is a mistake. The charts and price action should be all that we consider, trying to trade the news is a dangerous proposition. Market direction is a cumulative total of events that eventually make markets switch directions.

Looking at the options strategies that were the most popular last week remain bullish, the top three are Call Buying, Put Selling and Put Spread selling. The bears did buy some puts either for protection or as a trade. Bear Calls and Bear Call Spreads round out the top five.

Although tech remains in charge with the top symbols being, AAPL, QQQ, AMZN and ROKU. One big change for the Bulls this week was the SPY moved to the number one most bullish. On the bear side we see no surprises with XLE, CHV on the top. Both are oil related which had its first down week in six. MSFT, WDC and IWM round out the top five.

The biggest concern here could be the price of Lumbar which has collapsed. This could indicate a slowing in the housing markets which has been on fire.

As traders and investors, we have one thing to remember, follow the trend of the market. Be patient disciplined and leave your emotions out. The most important thing to remember is money management and self-control. 

Todd “Bubba” Horwitz

BubbaTrading.com


How Trading and Psychology are Linked
By - Dan Raju, CEO at Tradier on Jul 12, 2021 at 1:26:59 PM

Traderpsychology

 

When it comes to trading, psychology plays a big role in your successes and failures. Trading psychology boils down to the thoughts, impulses, and behaviors that form your decision-making. Even the most efficient and formulaic traders are able to be successful because they have trained their mental states to work in their favor rather than against them. Read on to learn what a proper trader mindset looks like and how you can gear your psychology toward reaching your goals. 

 

Trading Psychology Looks Like This 

 

Since some of the core emotions in human psychology are fear and desire, it should come as no surprise that fear and desire take center stage in trading psychology. Fear and desire play huge roles in determining how disciplined you are and how likely you are to take risks. Everyone’s disposition is different and ever-changing, but more likely than not, you can gain insight into how fear and desire rule your decisions by asking yourself questions like:

 

  • Do I often spend time carefully crafting a trading strategy only to abandon it when I see a new trend that I’m afraid to miss? 
  • Do I end up sticking to most of the strategies I set?
  • Do I lose money often based on impulse decisions? 
  • Do I over-compensate for failure and end up losing even more money in the process?

 

Why Understanding Your Mindset is Important 

 

At its core, any emotion like fear and desire is a signal that can function either as a tool for survival and success or as a hindrance to your goals. The difference in outcome depends on how you react to the emotion and utilize it. 

In a broad context, psychological training teaches you how to utilize your everyday emotions in a way that benefits you and your lifestyle. In a trading context, proper psychological training allows you to form habits and behaviors that benefit your trading game and allow you to navigate failure efficiently. So it’s important to be aware of your mindset in order to modify it and reach your goals. 

 

How Your Mind Gets in the Way of Your Goals

 

If you don’t have a good grip on how you react to fear and desire (also known as greed, impulsivity, longing, etc.) in your trading decisions, there are several outcomes that can happen:

 

You’ll Act on Emotion

 

In trading, thinking on your feet and making timely decisions are just part of the game. With that in mind, when you’re making those decisions based mostly on fear or desire, those snap decisions can end up costing you. One way your mind can trick you into making a decision is through herd mentality: this describes the tendency of an individual to join a trend simply on the basis of many other people jumping on it as well. The individual assumes that the other people jumping on the trend have done their research and analyzed the market correctly, but this usually isn’t the case. 

While you can find success in some instances of herd mentality, these moments are few and far between. Trends can invert at any time, especially when emotions are involved rather than data. There is a reason that seasoned, successful traders advise every trader to form strategies and try to stick to them on a highly consistent basis. 

 

You’ll Abandon Your Strategy (and Hard Work) 

 

As mentioned before, fear and desire can make you veer from your trading plan once you’ve spotted a new trend or piece of data that seems to contradict your current strategy. Sometimes abandoning ship is a good decision -- not every trading plan will be a successful one. However, if you find yourself doing this often, it is most likely at your detriment. The plans that you work hard to craft based on your research, experience, and tools like backtesting are most effective when they are followed how they are intended to be followed: consistently. 

 

How To Take Advantage of Your Mindset

 

As you work on your mindset, here are some things you can do to train yourself toward a more beneficial and efficient trading psyche: 

 

  • Identify your impulses. 
  • Record the times your trading outcomes are negatively impacted by impulses. 
  • Pay attention to the events that frequently trigger your buying and selling. 
  • Assess your performance regularly. 
  • Stick with your trading plans and form better ones by conducting more research and taking advantage of tools and community resources.

 

For more information on how to become an efficient trader, check out our five essential habits that seasoned traders build. Happy trading! 


Market Report Bulls No surprise, Bulls lead the way
By Todd Horwitz on Jul 11, 2021 at 2:40:53 PM

 Market Report Bulls No surprise, Bulls lead the way

By

 

Todd Horwitz Chief Strategist BubbaTrading.com

Be Prepared not Surprised.

We have been witnessing one of the easiest markets to predict in history, the bulls are in total control. Every dip finds buyers the bears have been unable to cease control. The biggest reason for the continuation of the rally is TINA, there is no alternative.

Important to remember, although direction has been easy everything else has been almost impossible. The slow drift higher keeps trading a challenge. Although the VIX had one spike last week the trend is lower, traders depend on volatility which makes trading conditions tough.

It’s with little surprise we see the top options strategies bullish, Call Buyers control the top followed by, Bull Pit Spreads, Bull puts and Bull Call spreads. There are few bear strategies in sight leading to a massive amount of complacency.

A couple of things to remember, Complacent markets usually signal the end is near and there is no such thing as a cheap option. As pundits continue to push the idea to buy “cheap” protection remember, options are fairly priced except when expensive.

Tech continues to lead the way with QQQ, AAPL and AMD on the top. SPY and IWM have snuck into the top five with earnings season beginning Tuesday. The Bears are led by GLD, GE, AG, X and NUE. This is a huge week as earnings kick off, but all signs lead to a higher market.

As traders and investors, we have one thing to remember, follow the trend of the market. Be patient disciplined and leave your emotions out. The most important thing to remember is money management and self-control. 

Todd “Bubba” Horwitz

BubbaTrading.com


Tradier Brokerage Announces a New Digital Onboarding Process for Customers of 75 Countries to Support it's Growing Global Active Trading Community and its Marketplace of API Connected Platform
By - Dan Raju, CEO at Tradier on Jul 7, 2021 at 12:14:20 AM

CHARLOTTE, NC, July 07, 2021-- Tradier Brokerage is pleased to announce the launch of its new digital international onboarding process to enable active international retail investors to get seamlessly onboarded through its online properties and API-connected platforms. Currently, over 88% of the accounts at Tradier Brokerage are based domestically. This enhancement furthers its commitment to offer commission-free access to the US markets and to the Tradier marketplace of third-party tools and content globally.

Globally active traders require actionable content, platform customization, and customer service in addition to low fees. Over the years our Traders and Platforms have requested the same digitized account opening experience we provide to our domestic clients to become available for clients across the globe. This release is expected to address such requests and empower Tradier Brokerage and our Partners to expand outside the domestic market.

"Active Equity and Options Investors both domestically and internationally who account for over 80% of the retail US-listed trading volumes today are currently lost between the hype around commission-free investing and rigid legacy brokers. They are a different segment altogether. They need enhanced technologies, deeper content, and most importantly educated support. I expect this release to empower Active Retail Investors globally to have enhanced access to the US markets and give them customizability and choice," said Dan Raju, CEO, and Co-Founder of Tradier.

About Tradier Brokerage Inc.

Tradier Brokerage, Inc.—a member of FINRA and SIPC—is an independent subsidiary of Tradier, Inc. The Brokerage API enables entrepreneurs, businesses, developers, and active traders to solve their trading and brokerage challenges using independent content and tool providers of their choice—at simple and competitive prices.

About Tradier, Inc.
Tradier, Inc. is a cloud-based financial services provider and brokerage API company that offers a groundbreaking platform to serve platform providers, advisors, developers, and individual investors. Tradier delivers an innovative set of fully hosted APIs, modules, and "out of the box" tools that are leveraged by a growing list of providers seeking to create innovative trading and investing experiences.


Market Report New Highs Roll
By Todd Horwitz on Jul 4, 2021 at 12:08:19 PM

 Market Report New Highs Roll

By

 

Todd Horwitz Chief Strategist BubbaTrading.com

Be Prepared not Surprised.

Just another week in the markets, ho hum they made new highs once again. Complacency reigns over this market, investors cannot get in fast enough. The VIX continues to fall making new lows once again.

The term being used for markets today is TINA, there is no alternative. This action is what eventually will create the problem in markets and why there is a major sell off looming. Remember we cannot time the market we can only follow the price action. For now, expect new highs to continue, especially coming into historically the most bullish time of the year.

We know that the driver of this market is the FED and cheap money allowing the very wealthy to keep charging ahead. The average investor does not get the same edge, but their portfolios are growing which brings the question is it real or just the added money supply?

What we do know is that options strategies remain bullish with long calls, bull puts, bull put spreads, bull call spreads. Obviously, the bulls are the strong hands and will probably continue to push as they run over the bears. Until something changes, we expect the new highs to continue.

Tech continues to lead and pick up strength, 9 of 10 of the top bullish symbols are tech including, QQQ, AAPL, FB, TSLA and AMD. The bears are selling SPY, XLE, COST, GDXJ and X. Based on the action there are no surprises.

As traders and investors, we have one thing to remember, follow the trend of the market. Be patient disciplined and leave your emotions out. The most important thing to remember is money management and self-control. 

Todd “Bubba” Horwitz

BubbaTrading.com


Why Trading is More Accessible Than Ever
By - Dan Raju, CEO at Tradier on Jun 29, 2021 at 4:22:46 PM

Alt-copy-happy-businesswoman-sitting-on-working-space-YKHCFNT

Although the rise of retail trading may seem like an overnight phenomenon, the surge has been a couple of years in the making. Many people credit COVID-19 with the rise of retail traders, also called individual traders, and it certainly did increase participation. However, a big takeaway from today’s trading environment is that regardless of the pandemic, trading is more accessible than ever. This is due to several reasons. 

New Tools and Technologies 

The data and research tools that were once available only for traditional brokerage firms are now available for anyone to use. This puts more power in the hands of the individual trader than ever before.

In late 2019, a new trend emerged that welcomed many new, individual traders into the trading world: commission-free trading. Commission-free trading quickly became an industry standard, and shifted the way people thought about trading. 

With commission-free trading came commission-free trading apps and platforms. Today, there is a huge variety of trading platforms and mobile app offerings to choose from. Great offerings not only allow you to trade from your phone, but they also contain built-in tools that can enable you to trade more efficiently. Some of the most in-demand tools are backtesting, advanced charts, and paper trading, which enable you to test out strategies without putting any money on the line. 

More (Free) Resources 

Much of the mystery and mystique behind trading is fading due to the availability of free educational resources on the internet. These range from articles and podcasts to YouTube channels dedicated to topics like how to break into trading, the different habits that traders build, and how to utilize certain options strategies and techniques. Free resources are a great tool for people of all ages who want to learn about trading without investing too much time or money trying to make it happen all on their own. 

Stronger Communities 

Trading has also been made more accessible with the growth of online communities. These communities span social media platforms like Twitter, Discord, Slack, and Reddit.

According to Insider, Discord has over 4,000 groups dedicated to trading and investing. People in those servers discuss market trends, options and stocks they’re buying, and positions they’re taking.  

Twitter and Reddit might be the most popular social media platforms for trading communities. If you’re familiar with the GameStop short squeeze from earlier this year, you’re likely already familiar with the subreddit, r/wallstreetbets. The subreddit is infamous for its memes and dedicated members, as well as their daily discussions where members discuss their next moves and strategies. 

Forums like r/wallstreetbets are a testament to the growing shareability of stock market trends and concepts, and they’re not likely to go anywhere soon, especially given the younger generations who are now becoming interested in stocks, bitcoin, and NFTs.  

A Perfect Storm

By 2020, the online brokerage industry had already shifted toward greater accessibility for all kinds of traders and investors. The pandemic environment of COVID-19 opened the door even wider: people had more time on their hands at home to try out trading for the first time or fine-tune their portfolios. From February 2020 to February 2021, over 13 million new brokerage accounts entered the market. Spikes in trading volume became commonplace. 

According to Bloomberg Intelligence via The Wall Street Journal, individual investors accounted for an estimated 19.5% of U.S. equity trading volume in 2020. This was an increase of 4% compared to 2019 and double the amount in 2010. More and more, individual investors and traders are claiming a stake in the market.

Now that we’re coming out of the pandemic, retail trading habits have settled down a bit. However, trading (and interest in trading) remains more accessible than ever, thanks to the technology and trends that have opened it up to larger audiences. 

Explore Your Options 

For free options learning and stock market analysis, check out our YouTube channel, OptionsBrewTV. We post educational content every week, with guest appearances by financial experts, entrepreneurs, and experienced traders.

We also partnered with Bubba Trading to create a (free) six-course series all about options trading in 2021. The series covers beginner basics, strategies, and more. Check it out here


Market Report Bulls Run Wild, Fireworks Coming
By Todd Horwitz on Jun 27, 2021 at 8:32:11 AM

 Market Report Bulls Run Wild, Fireworks Coming

By

 

Todd Horwitz Chief Strategist BubbaTrading.com

Be Prepared not Surprised.

Last week we asked the question; was the trend changing? We warned that although markets looked like there was trouble not to get too aggressive. Last week saw the S+P and Nasdaq made new highs while the Dow and Russell got close.

This is why we always warn that markets are always right opinions seldom are. Between the pundits and other market prognosticators they usually give misleading information. Always watch and trade from the price action, that will guide you in the most probable direction.

No surprise that the top option strategies remain bullish with long calls leading the way. They are closely followed by Bull Put Spreads, Bull Puts, Bull Call Spreads. We must move down the list to find any bearish strategies.

When it comes to options, we must remember that we don’t know the other side of the trade which means they could be bullish on the surface. However, based on the price action and the VIX it appears there is more room to run.

The bullish action comes heavily in tech led by QQQ, AMD, TSLA, AAPL and ROKU while the bear symbols are led by SPY, GLD, COST, HD and XLE. The bears symbols are consistent with what is happening in retail and metals.

As traders and investors, we have one thing to remember, follow the trend of the market. Be patient disciplined and leave your emotions out. The most important thing to remember is money management and self-control. 

Todd “Bubba” Horwitz

BubbaTrading.com


Interesting Harvard Study on Trading Volumes and News Cycles
By - Dan Raju, CEO at Tradier on Jun 22, 2021 at 8:25:24 AM

Link to the Harvard Study

Had a blast reading this. This study may be much sweeter for a few of my friends who are hungry Data Ninjas but certainly carries some fascinating timely facts. For those who may NOT want to dedicate your weekend to this, let me give you my quick take.

I thought that this study was fascinating as it seems to explain some of the recent Meme Trading behaviors. The paper analyzes clicks on 3.5 million financial news articles tagged with U.S. securities over the course of 12 months. It finds that, not only is trading volume directly related to informational and content releases but, also what is fascinating is that the model under which such information is dispersed or consumed has a substantial impact too. Incremental or Gradual informational dispersion and subsequent small byte consumption( I call it Tik-Tok-like) create enhanced engagement and subsequent trading behavior changes. It also finds that disagreement induced by differential timing of news consumption is strongly predictive of the trading volume.

I really think that WhatsApp groups, Reddit communities, and large day online trading forums result in an environment that creates incremental informational dispersion.

- Dan Raju | CEO  

 

 


Market Report Is the Trend Changing
By Todd Horwitz on Jun 20, 2021 at 9:40:50 AM

 Market Report Is the Trend Changing?

By

 

Todd Horwitz Chief Strategist BubbaTrading.com

Be Prepared not Surprised.

Last week was packed with economic data, the FED, PPI, and triple witching expiration. What looked like a market that was going to continue higher turned out to be a possible trend change and possibly the end of the bull market.

We do not predict we watch the price action, and this week will go a long way towards determining where they go next. We recognize a trend change in the DOW and the S+P is close, but the Nasdaq is still full speed ahead. Typically, the indices end up going in the same direction, which one is right?

Although we are seeing many reasons to believe that the markets are ready to turn but the option markets appear to be sending a different message. The strategies continue to be bullish with call buying leading the way again. Rounding out the top five are bullish as well with bull puts and bull put spreads.

Making the bull case are AAPL, ROKU, RMO, TSAL and BABA. On the bear side there is QQQ, SPY, DOCU, NTAP and TTWO. We are seeing a mixed bag of information which ties in with the consolidating markets on the verge of a trend change.

As traders and investors, we have one thing to remember, follow the trend of the market. Be patient disciplined and leave your emotions out. The most important thing to remember is money management and self-control. 

Todd “Bubba” Horwitz

BubbaTrading.com


Market Report Nothing can stop the rally
By Todd Horwitz on Jun 13, 2021 at 7:52:37 AM

 Market Report Nothing can stop the rally

By

 

Todd Horwitz Chief Strategist BubbaTrading.com

Be Prepared not Surprised.

As we have been writing for the last few weeks the markets are going to new highs. Last week the S+P achieved new highs while the Russell and Nasdaq were close. The Dow is the weakest but still in an uptrend. These quiet complacent conditions should continue to lead the markets higher.

This week the FED makes its decision on interest rates and there is virtually no chance that they will change their cheap money policy. It is obvious that they are clueless or hiding something with the same old story on transitory inflation. The CPI numbers indicate the FED is wrong.

Call buyers continue to lead the pack while selling naked puts is gaining momentum which knocks the VIX lower. Although the VIX is trading at 15 the action indicates its around 10. With the bullish positioning of selling Put spreads, covered calls and call spreads indications are the markets will continue higher.

The rally is being led by AMZN, AAPL, NIO, TSLA and TLRY which are tech and pot. Although there is little bearish action there are a few symbols being pressured. SPY, IWM, MSFT, NDX and BIIB. Interesting that there is bearish action in SPY and BIIB both making new highs last week.

As traders and investors, we have one thing to remember, follow the trend of the market. Be patient disciplined and leave your emotions out. The most important thing to remember is money management and self-control. 

Todd “Bubba” Horwitz

BubbaTrading.com



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